Where are we?
- Housing is still going down, but the government is doing everything in their power to make things better. Hank Paulson of the treasury is thinking about asking congress to make an entity that will take all bad assets from banks, thereby allowing people to stay IN THEIR HOMES!
- Banking is getting crushed, but again, the new gov't rules will help em' out. They will recover, and Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are going have SURGING profits from the demise of Lehman (however, Barclays will try and prop things up...they are a business and are looking to make money, right?), Merrill Lynch is NOT gone, they are with Bank of America, and as far as CEO Ken Lewis is concerned, Merrill is going to win.
- Is this the end of the down market? Will THIS be the week that everything just turns around and gets better, or will there be more blood?
What to do?
I have some AT&T stock, should I sell and reallocate? What about MS or AAPL?
I think MS will come back, either by merging, or by going at it alone. Once banking picks up, MS will be surging back to a 52 week high. Goldman just REITERATED MS to their CONVICTION buy list, so someone feels good about them. Apple. Lets see, everyone has an iPod now, but there are still more people that need to buy their computers. They've had surging sales, but I do not think the PC market is saturated at ALL. Thus, they have room to grow.
S0 I cant sell AAPL or MS.
But what about AT&T? They are losing business with landline service, but....their cell phone service isnt doing bad. The only thing is, they arent a growth company, and since Im young, I need GROWTH.
Is energy the best place to go? Warren Buffett just threw some money in there. NRG enegry. The thing is- the stock is waaaay down from when he bought it. Consider getting into a stock at a better price than the Oracle of Omaha....just for a second. He obviously did HIS research, so why should we? Just piggy back on the ol' fella.
So, I have several options to consider ONCE I SELL MY AT&T stock. Yup, thats it, T is outta my portfolio. So what should I put 3gs in?
- XTO- I already have some, but natural gas is the energy of the future according to Cramer
- NRG- piggy back on Cramer
- Financials- they are going to pick up soon, right?
- Housing- same boat as financials
Any other industries that are looking to grow?
---Not that I can think of right now.
BUT BUT BUT. I am already dumping $500 a month into a really good MS real estate fund, 5 star rated by Morningstar. So, I am ALREADY IN HOUSING.
So I guess its going to be an energy pick.
3 stocks- CHK, XTO, NRG.
Warren is buying NRG, your boy Aubrey K McClendon is buying a SHITLOAD of his own stock CHK hand over mother fucking fist. And its CHEAPER than XTO. And last time I remember, that stock was neck and neck with XTO at one point.
But what about NRG? Lets see...
I am going to see what the stock is at right now, and what analysts are predicting they will go up to based on valuations and a lot of grunt work.
CHK- Now 41, predicted 75. Thats a predicted 82% return
XTO- Now 50, predicted 75. Thats obviously a 50% gain
NRG- Now 30, predicted 50. Thats a 66% gain.
Winner is CHK.
Just drew up a 1 year chart with those 3 tickers, and CHK came out on top.
But what about the financials? (Not the industry, but a company's financial health)
It looks like CHK has a larger gain from year to year in income vs XTO, but they also lose a lot more in a down market. What does that mean? When both perform well in a good market, CHK will end up making more of a gain. And since they are both down about now, CHK has more to make. I think that, for now, I will sell my MS, AT&T, and XTO so that I can put about 7 g's in CHK. I think that will be a good move.
